Systems Check

With two full weeks of NFL football in the books, it’s time to do a quick check on our systems that we’re tracking this year. So far, we only have the one system up and running so we’ll take a look and see how it did last weekend.

System: Bounce Back Cover (BBC)

As I mentioned in the intro, the only system we’re tracking right now is the BBC, seeing if teams who didn’t cover the previous week can bounce back and cover vs a team that did cover in their last game.

The 10 we had in week two were:

Didn’t break the bookie last week, but still positive. A couple of close calls with the Chargers, Bengals, and Vikings all looking like they could’ve covered during the 4th quarter of their respective games, but a decent start to the season for the BBC.

Looking ahead to this weekend’s slate of qualifying games. Quick disclaimer, teams who pushed last weekend are exempt. So no picks for matchups including the Vikings or Eagles (pushed on PHI -6), 49ers or Rams (pushed on 49ers -7), and Saints or Panthers (pushed on Saints -3). The system is the system and I don’t want to muddy the water with pushes.

Only 4 games that hit the mark this weekend. Closer to the weekly average than the 10 we had last weekend. I told you it felt off and sure enough, we’re back to a more reasonable number this time around.

Noon – Broncos +6.5 at Dolphins

The Commanders beat the Broncos outright last weekend in Denver, even though they were 4-point favorites. No Commanders in the BBC system this weekend since they face Buffalo, who also covered.

On SNF last weekend, the Dolphins beat the Patriots by a full touchdown, meaning they covered the 3 points they were favored by.

Noon – Titans at Browns -3.5

Due to a game-winning field goal in OT, the Titans covered and won outright as 3-point underdogs vs the Chargers last weekend.

Cleveland lost outright as 2.5-point favorites in Pittsburgh on MNF. With Chubb being out for the season, I’m surprised by this line. The system is the system though, so it has to be mentioned even though it’s fishy.

3:25pm – Bears +12.5 at Chiefs

The Bears’ offensive struggles were real in Tampa last weekend, as they lost and failed to stay within the 2.5 points they were getting as underdogs.

Kansas City finally got in the win column with an 8-point victory in Jacksonville, even though they were only 3.5-point favorites.

SNF – Steelers at Raiders -2.5

The Steelers won outright on MNF last week vs Cleveland.

Las Vegas looked decent for the first few minutes in Buffalo but ended up losing by 28 and not even coming close to covering the 8-point spread.

(Odds courtesy of DraftKings at 6pm Friday)

Those are the 4 system plays for this weekend, Broncos, Browns, Bears, and Raiders all ATS. I see some value in the Broncos, Bears, and Raiders plays, but just can’t wrap my head around the Browns being 3.5-point favorites. The Titans have looked decent and the Browns lost Chubb and Deshaun hasn’t played great yet this year. As you saw in my week 3 picks (now 10-1-2 & 1-0 Laubach Lock), the only pick I have that matches the system is LV -2.5. The Bears/Chiefs game is on my card, but I just took the under 48.

If you haven’t tapped into my week 3 picks, check them out below. Might tweet some CFB plays tomorrow but don’t plan on writing a full blog, so make sure you’re following me on Action or Twitter to get those picks.

New systems still TBD. Need more data.

Deuces.