We’re backkkkkkkk!! If you’re looking for the best NFL Week 3 picks, you’re in the right place. 8 winners and a Laubach Lock below, it’s just up to you to bet them. Let’s get into it.
TNF: Giants at 49ers (O/U 43.5, SF -10.5)
Thanks to an incredible second half from the Giants on both sides of the ball, they were able to come back in dramatic fashion and beat the Arizona Cardinals to get in the win column for the first time this season. As impressive of a comeback as it was, I’m not putting much stock in it, and neither are the bookmakers. Vegas has the Niners as 10.5-point favorites, which is the largest spread this season to date. That’ll change if the Bears/Chiefs spread holds at 12.5, but either way, Vegas doesn’t expect New York to compete in the Bay.
I know it’s a lot of points, but I’m siding with Vegas here. It’s the Niners home opener and their defense is going to bounce back after letting Rams’ Puka Nacua tear them up.
Pick: SF -10.5
Saints at Packers (O/U 42.5, GB -1.5)
A late TD + 2-point conversion on MNF led to the Saints pushing the -3 I told you to lay, but I was honestly shocked they were even in a position to come away with a win. Derek Carr is the most bipolar QB in the league. He’ll have deep balls to Michael Thomas or Olave that’ll look like Josh Allen was back there, but then miss wide-open guys like 2023 Deshaun Watson. Just a rough game to watch all around. On the other hand, the Packers have looked surprisingly good but I’m still not bought in. No way they go from Farve, to Rodgers, to Love without a multi-year bad stretch mixed in there.
Given my lack of faith in either team to move the ball, we’re just going under here and I’ll probably just throw this game on the small TV.
Pick: Under 42.5
Chargers at Vikings (O/U 54, MIN -1)
Even though neither of these teams have looked great this year, I’m actually super excited for this matchup. Great colors, great offenses, and two teams that always seem to produce chaos. This game was pretty tough to read since the Vikings seemed to be a lock in close games last year, but look like they used up all their luck as they haven’t been able to grab a win this season in two close calls. The Chargers are in a similar boat, as they held a 4th quarter lead in both weeks 1 and 2, but are winless on the season.
I have to side with the home team here and go with the Vikings and the experience they have from winning close games last year.
I also don’t trust the Chargers’ defense after the week 1 shootout vs Miami so I’m taking the Vikings team total over.
Pick: MIN ML (-115) & MIN TT Over 27.5
Bears at Chiefs (O/U 48, KC -12.5)
As I alluded to earlier, we’ll see the largest spread of the season when the Bears visit the Chiefs on Sunday. So far this season, I’ve given KC minus whatever the number is as a pick, but I’m not going to do that here. Truly just too many points, even against an abysmal Chicago Bears team. Somehow it looks like everyone got worse in Chicago and the morale inside the clubhouse can’t be great right now.
While I never expect a group of grown men to roll over, I just don’t see the Bears’ offense moving the ball much against a stout Chiefs’ defense. Yes, you read that right, the Chiefs actually seem to have a good defense this year.
Pick: Under 48
SNF: Steelers at Raiders (O/U 43, LV -2.5)
What a win for Pittsburgh last Monday! It took a defensive clinic and a sad injury from Chubb, but that Steelers defense looked legit. Pickens also looked like he might have some player prop or Fantasy value for the next few weeks while Diontae Johnson is out. Outside of Pickens and some good spurts from Jaylen Warren, this offense was tough to watch. Najee has no acceleration and two-glove Pickett is probably more inconsistent than Derek Carr.
The Raiders have similar problems, as they struggled to move the ball vs Buffalo. I do have more faith in this Raiders offense, however, mainly because I believe Josh Jacobs has to bounce back eventually and they still have #17 out there catching balls.
Pick: LV -2.5
MNF: Eagles at Buccaneers (O/U 46, TB +5)
The first MNF game of the day and one of the few home underdogs of the weekend. Of the 16 games this weekend, only 4 of the home teams are underdogs.
With that being said, my pick here is simple. Philadelphia hasn’t looked great all year and Tampa has exceeded everyone’s expectations. I’m taking the Birds here in a big win over the Bucs. I know everyone says that the ‘hungry dog runs faster’, but even as 5-point underdogs, I don’t think Tampa feels that hunger. If anything, Philly has the hunger to prove that they’re still the team to beat in the NFC.
Pick: PHI -5
MNF: Rams at Bengals (O/U 44, CIN -3)
Speaking of hungry dogs, Cincinnati has to be itching to get their first win of the year. Do they get it here? I’ve got no clue, but I do know that their offense is going to put up some numbers. The Rams have also shown that they can score points in bunches and McVay loves to use his new toys (Kyren Williams and Puka).
I think this has the makings for a shootout and a big day from both offenses.
Pick: Over 44
LAUBACH’S LOCK
Even without Anthony Richardson for most of the game, the Colts got us a W in the first ever ‘Laubach Lock’. Trust me, I was nervous when we got knocked out, but I absolutely loved the spot that the Colts were in last week.
For this week, I love the Patriots in New York. Bill Belichick hasn’t started 0-2 since 2001, oh and they went on to win the Super Bowl that year. I’m not saying they’ll do that this year, but Bill sure as hell isn’t going to start 0-3. Plus the Jets literally can’t beat the Pats (14 straight for NE)
Pick: NE -2.5
Hopefully, we get similar results to what we had last weekend, but either way, I appreciate the support and enjoy breaking down some picks.
Good luck to everyone tonight and this weekend. Let’s get after it.
Cheers.
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