Hurry Up Offense: CFB Week 3

In the first installment of my ‘Hurry Up Offense’ themed blogs, I’ll do a quick breakdown of a few games/bets I like in week 3 of college football.

#3 Florida State at Boston College (O/U 47, BC +24.5)

Florida State is a lock for the CFP in my opinion. The Clemson dynasty is dunzo. Duke isn’t winning the ACC in football. Miami might be back so that’s an interesting matchup in week 11, but FSU is likely a favorite in every game the rest of the year. I do think Syracuse is solid and we’ll get into that later, but since that game is in Tallahassee, I think FSU will come away with a W.

As for this game, I’m just taking the over and betting on B.C. being able to put up a couple touchdowns.

Pick: Over 47

#15 Kansas State at Missouri (O/U 49.5, MIZ +3.5)

The first team to be named to my Mt. Rushmore of ‘Cover Machines’ is Kansas State. I know we’re in only in week 3 and they’ve played nobodies, but they look really good so far. Missouri is also 2-0 but it hasn’t been pretty. I expect lots of points, so an easy 7-point win for the Wildcats, minimum.

Pick: KSU -3.5

Iowa State at Ohio (O/U 42.5, Ohio +2.5)

Great defenses. ISU has allowed 29 points in 2 games so far, with Ohio only surrendering 40 points in 3 games. An average of 27.8 combined points allowed by these defenses and neither offense has looked that explosive yet.

Pick: Under 42.5

Central Michigan at #9 Notre Dame (O/U 51.5, ND -34.5)

The second of 4 teams on the ‘Cover Machines’ Mt. Rushmore is Notre Dame. Hartman is a sneaky candidate for Heisman and they’ll dominate at home vs CMU.

Pick: ND -34.5

#19 Oklahoma at Tulsa (O/U 59.5, TU +28.5)

OU is going to bounce back here big after an uncomfortable win vs SMU. I know it’s a road game but it’s a short drive from Norman to Tulsa. OU seems to even play better in Tulsa, with wins by 45, 41, and 37 in the 3 matchups that took place in the 918 since 2000.

Pick: OU – 28.5

Western Kentucky at #6 Ohio State (O/U 65, OSU -30)

Don’t get me wrong, I think Ohio State is good and has some players on both sides of the ball, but this is just too many points. WKU has a great offense and can score a bunch of points, which is why the total is set so high, even though OSU has only given up 10 points all year. The bookmakers are writing this like it’ll be a 48-17 game, but WKU is better than that offensively.

The winner of the game will never be in doubt but I like the Hilltoppers with the points

Pick: WKU +30

BYU at Arkansas (O/U 47.5, ARK -8)

Two undefeated teams in a matchup that’ll be one of the better ones of the weekend. I think this game is tight and I honestly believe BYU could win outright, so I’m rocking with the new Big 12 squad to cover vs the old one. Arkansas isn’t that great at winning games by as much as they should, so give me the Cougars.

Pick: BYU +8

Syracuse at Purdue (O/U 56.5, SYR -2.5)

As I alluded to earlier, I think Syracuse is solid. In my rankings of teams I go Great/Almost Great/Good/Sneaky Good/Solid/Bad/Really Bad/Really Really Really Bad/Nebraska. Purdue is around the ‘really bad’ spot, while Syracuse is at a ‘solid’ and trending up. A field goal is not enough points, give me the Orange. Syracuse jumps in as ‘Cover Machine’ team three here too.

Pick: SYR -2.5

South Alabama at Oklahoma State (O/U 48.5, OKST -7)

I’m not sure any of OSU’s three quarterbacks is better than USA’s Carter Bradley. Granted, he is in his 6th year overall and 2nd with the Jaguars. As an OSU fan, I want to say the Pokes blow them out of the water but I’m just not confident in our squad yet. This bet is 0-2 on the year in OSU games but I’m taking the over. At least now I can cheer if Bradley puts up some good numbers.

Pick: Over 48.5

The OSU quarterback conversation is so polarizing. In the past 24 hours, I’ve heard multiple people call for each of three to start the rest of the year. Gonna be a big year for hindsight experts

— Matt Ravis (@mattravis) September 13, 2023

LAUBACH’S LOCK

Just as I did for the NFL week 2 preview, I’ll add a Laubach Lock here at the end of my CFB week 3 preview.

I’m taking the Tennessee Volunteers to cover -5.5 points in their game at Florida tomorrow. I know Tennessee didn’t cover last week vs Austin Peay, but I blame the rain delay for the Vols slow start. If Tennessee wins, they’ll also join Kansas State, Notre Dame, and Syracuse on my Mt. Rushmore of ‘Cover Machines’. If they lose, that fourth spot will be TBD until next week.

Pick: TENN -5.5

Good luck to everyone tomorrow and Sunday! Likely nothing else this weekend but I’ll be active on ActionNetwork and Twitter so follow me there!

Cheers.