After a 4-1 week 1, I’m back to give you 7 of my best bets plus a new Laubach Lock for the upcoming weekend of NFL football. Short preview of each game to go along with the pick, odds courtesy of DraftKings as of 6pm today.
For more on my week 1 picks, check out the article below.
TNF: Vikings at Eagles (O/U 49, PHI -6)
Great game to get the week 2 slate going. Despite a massive first half from Justin Jefferson last Sunday, the Vikings (-5) ended up losing outright at home to the Bucs. Jefferson will have his work cut out for him again this week, as Darius Slay, Eagles star DB, will likely shadow him everywhere he goes. When these two teams played in week 2 of last year, Slay ended the game with a pair of interceptions and limited Jefferson to 6 catches for 48 yards. The Eagles, who won last week in a surprisingly close one at New England, beat the Vikings 24-7 in the 2022 matchup.
I know everyone knows the Kirk Cousins Primetime stigma, but his teams in Minnesota have averaged 23.12 points a game over 17 occasions. After seeing the Eagles’ defense get shredded for 316 yards by Mac Jones, I wouldn’t be shocked if the Vikings put up 28+. I think the Eagles will win, but it’ll be tight the whole way so I’ll rock with the Vikings in a bounce-back spot here.
Pick: MIN +6
Chiefs at Jaguars (O/U 51, JAX +3.5)
In a rematch of the 2022 AFC Divisional round, the Jags get to play host to KC this time around for a week 2 matchup. Obviously, the big storyline here is the status of star tight end Travis Kelce. At the time of this writing, there’s still no update on if he’ll be good to go or not. I have to assume that he’ll play even if he’s only at 80%, just because the Chiefs do not want to start 0-2 and lose a H2H game vs Jacksonville that could come into play later in the season. It is nice to know that Chris Jones will be out there on the defensive side of the ball, even if he’s not 100% in game shape.
Jacksonville, who hung with KC all the way through that playoff matchup, is looking to build off their 10-point victory in Indy last Sunday. In his first game back from serving a season-long suspension last year, Calvin Ridley looked like he didn’t miss a beat. Lawrence definitely appreciated having some additional weapons on the outside to go with Zay Jones, Evan Engram, and Christian Kirk.
I think this is going to be a great game, but I just don’t see KC allowing this one to stay close.
Pick: KC -3.5
Seahawks at Lions (O/U 47.5, DET -5)
The Seahawks are getting 5 points in Detroit in a bounce-back spot?? Count me in. I know the Lions looked much more impressive than the Seahawks did in week 1, but I just don’t see them covering that many points against a stout defense like Seattle.
The second half of the Rams/Seahawks game was just so awful that I’ve decided to block it from my memory. I’m riding with Pete Carroll to cover the spread and I wouldn’t be shocked if they won outright. This line has already shifted down from 5.5 to 5 since I started writing the blog, but my pick doesn’t change.
Pick: SEA +5
Ravens at Bengals (O/U 46, CLE +3.5)
Will Joe Burrow and crew bounce back from a humiliating loss in week 1? I know everyone is expecting the Bengals to be an easy play here since they’re at home and the Ravens honestly didn’t look that great for the first half of their opener vs Houston, but I’m not rolling the dice on a side bet here.
I think both defenses looked terrible in week 1, giving up a combined 674 yards to the Browns and Texans. I think we’ll see similar defensive lapses on both sides of the ball and each team will try to flex their explosive offenses. Give me some points here in what will be a great AFC North matchup.
Pick: Over 46
SNF: Dolphins at Patriots (O/U 47, NE +3)
Tyreek Hill. That’s the entire reason for my pick here. No one on the Patriots and maybe no one on earth can keep up with Hill in the open field. I think Belichick will try to come with ways to slow him down, but Bill honestly has been that great at minimizing Hill’s impact. With the Chiefs, Tyreek tore up the Patriots’ secondary when they played. Tua is no Mahomes, but I think they’ll find ways to stay explosive on offense and New England won’t be able to keep up. Don’t love this pick since the line seems fishy, I would’ve expected something closer to -4.5, but I’m rocking with the Fins.
Pick: MIA -3
MNF: Saints at Panthers (O/U 40, CAR +3)
In the first of two MNF games, we have NFC South divisional opponents facing off in Carolina. Panthers’ rookie Bryce Young will get his first opportunity to showcase why he was the #1 pick in last year’s draft. I think he’ll be able to have flashes where he makes the Panthers offense look sexy, but he won’t be the main headliner leaving this game.
Chris Olave is going to put the world on notice on Monday night. I know this was Derek Carr’s first game in NOLA, but it was embarrassing how little Olave was involved during the first half of the Saints’ win vs Tennessee. Three catches for 26 yards before the break, then 5 for 86 after. Whatever they found in that second half is what they’ll carry over into this week. The Saints go marching and start the season 2-0 for the first time since 2013.
Pick: NO -3
MNF: Browns at Steelers (O/U 39, PIT +2)
The second MNF game to kick off is another divisional matchup, this time in the AFC North. Something is incredibly fishy about this line and it scares me. The Browns absolutely dominated the Bengals, while the Steelers got smoked 7-30 vs San Fran. How is this line on 2 points?? I’m not falling into the CLE -2 trap here, and I’m actually going to ride with Pittsburgh. It’s gross, I hate it, but I don’t want to cop out and take the under. If I had to rank these picks based on confidence, this is definitely at the bottom.
Pick: PIT +2
LAUBACH’S LOCK
Debuting for the first time, I’m happy to introduce my Laubach Lock for week 2 of the NFL. I can’t believe I didn’t think of having one for week 1 and I won’t speculate on what it would’ve been (SF -2.5).
For week 2, I’m backing Anthony Richardson to get his first NFL win. Colts looked good and almost got it done vs Jacksonville and Houston is still so bad. I don’t expect it to be easy, but I’m not even going to mess with the 1.5 spread here.
Pick: IND ML +100
That’s it. Those are the picks. As always, follow me on Back_Rick on the ActionNetwork for all my plays. Going with a JJettas and Hurts ATTD parlay during TNF at +278, just half a unit but check out my profile on there to see all the goods.
Maybe another NFL article coming out before the Sunday slate but not 100% sure. I will post a couple CFB picks and previews tomorrow though so make sure to tune in for that.
Cheers.
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