Ah shit, here we go again. For the 10th time this century, Massachusetts finest football team, the New England Patriots, are headed to the Super Bowl. This is the Pats 12th appearance of all time, meaning they’ve played in 20% of all Super bowls ever, and have appeared four more times than any other franchise. A victory for New England would give them 7 Lombardi’s, breaking their tie with Pittsburgh for the most all time.
If you’ve watched any NFL over the past few years, you’re racking your brain trying to figure out how we’re back in this position. The Patriots were astronomically bad over the past 2 seasons, boasting an 8-26 record with a point differential of negative 258, both of which are near the bottom of the league.
| 2023 | 2024 | Total | Point Differential | |
| Patriots | 4-13 | 4-13 | 8-26 | -258 |
| Panthers | 2-15 | 5-12 | 7-27 | -373 |
| Giants | 6-11 | 3-14 | 9-25 | -283 |
| Titans | 6-11 | 3-14 | 9-25 | -211 |
| Jets | 7-10 | 5-12 | 12-22 | -153 |
The biggest change we can point to is the home-run job first-year head coach Mike Vrabel has done with this Patriots squad. If the phrase “Vrabels’ Patriots in the Super Bowl” sounds familiar, it’s because it should. Vrabel was a 14-year pro in the NFL, which included an 8-year stint in New England during the early part of the 2000s when he helped the Patriots win 3 championships. After retiring in early 2011, Vrabel became a top coaching prospect and joined the Texans as a linebackers coach in 2014. In 2017, he was promoted to defensive coordinator, a one year stint that propelled him into head coaching talks, which led him to Tennessee. In his 6 years as the head coach of the Titans, the team went 54-45 and made the playoffs 3 times, including a trip to the AFC Championship in 2019. The Titans ended up firing Vrabel in 2024 after back-to-back losing seasons. After taking the 2024 season off from coaching, he was picked by Pats owner Robert Kraft, who owned the team while Vrabel was a player, to be the next head coach of the New England Patriots. If the Patriots are able to win next Sunday, Vrabel would join a short list of NFL head coaches to win a Super Bowl in his first year with his team.
- Gary Kubiak | Denver Broncos | Super Bowl L
- Jon Gruden | Tampa Bay Buccaneers | Super Bowl XXXVII
- George Seifert | San Francisco 49ers | Super Bowl XXIII
- Don McCafferty | Baltimore Colts | Super Bowl V
Another major improvement to the 2025 Patriots came at the quarterback position. After a disappointing rookie campaign in 2024, Drake Maye broke out this year and is a finalist for league MVP. Maye is top 5 in passing yards, top 3 in passing touchdowns, and led the NFL in QBR and completion percentage during the regular season. While his stellar play led the Patriots to the second seed in the AFC and a 14-3 record, he’s not been the reason they’ve won 3 playoff games. Across 35 postseason possessions (adjusted for end of half/game scenarios), Maye has only led 5 touchdown drives and has posted a completion percentage below 60% in every game, a number he was only below once in the regular season. Granted, the Chargers, Texans, and Broncos defenses are all elite units, but Maye will need to be better against an equally solid Seahawks defense if he wants to win this Super Bowl.
Speaking of the Seahawks defense, they are led by 3 pro bowlers (which still means something despite Shedeur’s inclusion), and were absolutely dominate this year against every team (but the Rams). Excluding the two recent wins in shootout fashion vs LA, the Seahawks have allowed just 44 total points across their other 6 games since Thanksgiving. The scoring distribution? One passing touchdown from Philip Rivers, one Bryce Young QB scramble, then 32 points from kickers (10fgm, 2xp made). They held Bijan Robinson, Jonathan Taylor, and CMC (twice!) from reaching the endzone during this winter push. Don’t let the lack of household names cloud the fact that the Seahawks defense will be the best unit on the field in the Super Bowl.
Shifting to the offensive side of the ball for Seattle, I have to give immense flowers to Jaxon Smith-Njigba. It’s insane how everyone knows he’s the best player on the field, but defenses still can’t find a way to stop him. He goes for over 100 yards and a touchdown more often than not, surpassing both metrics in 10 of 19 games this season. What’s even crazier? He saved his best performance for the biggest stage, going for 153 yards on 10 receptions and a touchdown in the NFC Championship game. PFF graded his performance a 92.2, JSN’s second time being graded 92 or higher this season joining Puka as the only receivers to post multiple games that high (Nacua did it six times this year).
No matter how talented you are as a receiver, you can only create plays if you have a QB that’s able to get you the ball (sorry Justin Jefferson…). A revived Sam Darnold has been that and more for JSN and the rest of the Seattle receiving corps this year. Darnold’s on his 5th different team, including this being his 4th stop in as many years, but has put together an impressive past two seasons. After only winning 21 of his first 56 QB starts, he’s rattled off back-to-back 14 win seasons and is now one win away from being immortalized as a Super Bowl champion. Standing in his way? An old divisional foe from his time on the New York Jets. Arguably the dirtiest thing ESPN has ever done (and there’s definitely some good competition) was airing Darnold’s mic’d up clips from a Jets/Patriots Monday Night Football game back in 2019.
Darnold had 5 total turnovers that game and the Jets were killed in a 33-0 shutout. While this specific matchup gets talked about the most, Darnold has been awful against the Patriots throughout his career. Even if you take away the two losses he had vs Brady, he’s 0-2 vs Cam Newton and Mac Jones and boasts a combined stat line of 438 passing yards, 1 touchdown, and 6 interceptions. Thankfully for Seahawks fans, his current roster is leaps and bounds better than the 2020 Jets and 2021 Panthers, but let’s just say it’s important for Darnold to avoid any sort of ghost activities between now and Super Bowl Sunday.
I’ll write up a betting preview closer to the game with my favorite props (already love tails, Seahawks D/ST ATTD, and 2nd half being the highest scoring half) and I’ll breakdown the actual spread and total themselves.
Felt good to write a little bit and look forward to continuing with the revamped Rick’s Radio.
Cheers,
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