Back from ACL, back to the grind. Great picks last weekend, which was much needed to supplement the absolute price gouging that went on at Zilker Park. $14 beers, $40 hats, and $60 Ubers really ran up a tab.
As great as it was (now 33-13-2 on the year incl. 5-0 on the Lock), it’s over. We’re onto week 7 and I gave out an absolute dud on TNF, so we need more winners.
Commanders at Giants (O/U 37.5, NYG +3)
Since preseason, I’ve been high on the Commanders. I bet them over 6.5 wins before the year got going, and we’re one win away from being more than halfway home. I think they get that 4th win here in week 7 and keep their road success rolling.
Washington is 3-0 ATS on the road this year and will dominate the Giants’ injured offensive. I know the game’s at the Meadowlands, but I think everyone’s buying on the Giants after the close loss last week in Buffalo. No matter who is at QB for the New York Football Giants, I’m taking the Commies.
Pick: WAS -3
Lions at Ravens (O/U 43, BAL -3)
By far the best game of the noon slate. I wanted to say this would be the reality check game for the Lions, just like I called the reality check for the Dolphins when they had to go play the Bills. I’m not sure that happens here though.
We all know the Lions can score, but their defense isn’t awful. A unit that was mocked and circled as a massive liability last year, has actually looked good so far this year and is the top rush defense.
The Lions are my pick based on the eye test, but literally every single stat also favors Detroit.
Most profitable QB since 2017: Jared Goff
The most profitable team in the NFL since 2021: Detroit Lions
Lamar as a home favorite: 11-21 ATS
Lamar playing at home at noon: 9-16 ATS
Harbaugh as a favorite: 79-85-5 ATS
Not saying every pick is based on trends and historical data, but it definitely looks like the Lions getting 3 points here is the best option.
Cannot wait for this game.
Pick: DET +3
Steelers at Rams (O/U 44, LAR -3)
Mike Tomlin as a dog is an auto-bet for me at this point. He’s so good in this spot and I’m not going to argue it.
No other analysis for this game other than that.
Pick: PIT +3
Chargers at Chiefs (O/U 47.5, KC -5.5)
While Mahomes owns the AFC West, he doesn’t do it by covering spreads, he just wins games. If the Chiefs were playing almost any other team, I’d be all over them. The stats when Reid has a long week or is coming off a bye speak for themselves, but I also think that the Chiefs are itching to truly flex and show that they’re still the team to beat.
Unfortunately, they have the Chargers this weekend. Coming off a close home loss, the Chargers are going to be bouncing back in a big way on Sunday. Not to mention Herbert is dominant ATS vs Mahomes (4-1 ATS).
KC will win, but the game will be decided by 3 or 4 points, not 6 or 7. It sucks but the Chargers are really good at losing close games, and that’s what I think will happen this weekend.
Pick: LAC +5.5
SNF: Dolphins at Eagles (O/U 51.5, PHI -3)
What a slate of games the NFL has this weekend! While we have a few stinkers, Bears/Raiders, Broncos/Packers, and Cardinals/Seahawks all come to mind, we have a great noon game, the Chiefs in the afternoon, and this Sunday Night Football matchup that we could very easily be seeing in Vegas next February.
The Dolphins are the most fun team to watch on offense in the NFL right now. Everyone knows how fast they are and the plethora of explosive players they have at every position, but will their line be able to hold off this Eagles defensive front?
Due to injury, the Eagles’ biggest question mark also is on the offensive line. Without Lane Johnson, the Birds are going to have trouble giving Hurts enough time to make plays… and we all know you have to score a lot to keep up with Miami.
Miami knows they have to step up to the plate in these big matchups, but I just don’t see the Eagles losing two in a row.
Pick: PHI -3
MNF: 49ers at Vikings (O/U 44, MIN +7)
Such a gross Monday Night Football matchup from a betting perspective. I honestly think this game could be somewhat competitive if Jefferson was playing, but I just don’t see how the Vikings stay close without him.
Whatever lull the Niners were in the loss last weekend won’t be replicated this Monday. I really think the Browns DC just has Shanahan’s number.
Expect a big bounceback from the Niners.
Pick: SF -7
LAUBACH LOCK
Still perfect on the season. I honestly don’t know how but here we are, looking to 6-0.
I hate everything about this pick, but I’m treating it like a heat check. If this pick hits, we’re not losing a Laubach Lock all year. We’re taking two backup QBs to sling the rock around and make some noise. The Bears are the most profitable team on the over so far this year. Their opponent, the Raiders, are the second least profitable team on the over this year. I don’t care, the total is low enough that I feel like it could happen. Plus, it’s always the random backup QB matchup that ends up actually being a decent game.
I think this game could end up being kind of fun to watch. Points Points Points.
Laubach Lock: Over 37.5 LV/CHI
Let’s have a weekend.
Cheers.
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