Can’t hide from it, week 3 was not our best. After winning our TNF bet, I really thought we were about to go on another heater. Moving to Sunday, we started with a stress-free under in Saints/Packers, but Kirk Cousins’ interception in the endzone with 12 seconds left kept us from extending our streak to 14 consecutive games without a loser. Kirk F-ing Cousins man… Just spike the ball, set up a route for JJettas and we cash our Minnesota ML and TT over.
Outside of this game, we lost a couple of other close ones. DJ Moore’s garbage time TD put the CHI/KC under into the grave and it looked like the Raiders were in a position to force that MNF game to OT and open the door to cover the -2.5.
Regardless, we’re still 12-6-2 on the year and a perfect 2-0 on my Laubach Locks. Hopefully we can move on from the 4-5 weekend and get more W’s than L’s this week.
**Disclaimer** I know this blog is coming out after TNF, but you can check the receipts below for verification on my Lions pick. Also, follow me on Action Network for all of my picks as I place them.
TNF: Lions at Packers (O/U 45, GB +2)
This is pretty easy for me, the Lions haven’t looked their best and the Packers have looked better than expected. Green Bay used up all of their luck last week in the major comeback vs the Saints.
Short preview here because the game is over but for reference here’s my pick and tweet.
Pick: DET -2
London Series: Falcons at Jags (O/U 43, JAX -3)
Jacksonville is almost .500 in their London games, currently sitting at 4-5. While that stat initially makes you want to at least take Jacksonville on the ML, they’re 0-3 straight up in their last 3 games at Wembley. A few years back, the NFL started playing at the Tottenham Spurs stadium and Jacksonville has a recent win in that arena, but they’re winless in the last three at this stadium for this game (Wembley).
With all of that being said, I think the Falcons showed their true colors last weekend in the blowout loss in Detroit and it’s not far-fetched to say the Jags have their best football in front of them. The London games are usually close, so I like the Falcons if you’re putting together a 6 or 13 point teaser, but with this line? I like Jacksonville.
Pick: JAX -3
Dolphins at Bills (O/U 54, BUF -2.5)
The Dolphins looked legit last weekend vs a defense that is supposed to be one of the best in the league. 70 points, 2nd most yards from scrimmage, and an absolute beatdown given to the Broncos. Buffalo looked good last weekend too, absolutely shutting down the Commanders.
This is the Bills’ chance to prove they’re still the team to beat in the AFC West. I expect Allen to step up to the plate and run up the score. Bills cover and give me the over, just for fun.
Pick: BUF -2.5, Over 54
Steelers at Texans (O/U 42.5, HOU +2.5)
Even though they’re 1-2, the Texans have to be one of the best stories of the year so far. The big win in Jacksonville last weekend is the driving factor, but their offense just looks fun too. Yes, the Texans offense is fun.
The Steelers also have to be up there as one of the better stories of 2023, with their 2-1 start and having both wins in primetime.
This pick is based purely on the spot. Mike Tomlin as an underdog is an absolute WAGON. I can’t believe I told you to bet against him last weekend in primetime. Since he’s not an underdog here, I’m telling you to bet against him again and take the Texans as home underdogs.
I think the Steelers are good, but not good enough to be -2.5 in Houston, given how the Texans have looked decent so far.
Pick: HOU +2.5
Patriots at Cowboys (O/U 43.5, DAL -6.5)
This line has already moved from -7 to -6.5 in the last day and I honestly wouldn’t be super shocked if it fell down to 6. The Pats have played teams close all year and the public is expecting them to be able to do the same in Dallas. Plus, Dallas losing last weekend in humiliating fashion gives the bettors even more reason to hammer Bill Belichick with a bunch of points to work with.
I’m on the opposite side of that thinking. The Patriots are bad. Yes, they hung with the Eagles week 1, had the Dolphins in a nail-biter week 2, and beat the Jets week 3, but they are bad. The Eagles were up massive early and then got sloppy in the rain and let New England back into it. Every time the Pats got close to the Dolphins, Miami immediately scored and made it a two-score game again.
The Cowboys are 9-1 straight up after a regular season loss. I know I’m taking them to cover a full TD, but 6 of the 9 wins were by more than 7. This game might not be an easy win, but back the Boys to bounce back.
Pick: DAL -6.5
SNF: Chiefs at Jets (O/U 41.5, NYJ +9)
KC is getting all of the attention right now from the Swifties and all of the media outlets. Do I like that as a Chiefs fan? Not particularly, but at least it’s good publicity!
I’m 1-2 on games involving the Chiefs, winning with the cover in Jacksonville, but losing the under last week vs Chicago and missing on KC covering the TNF opener vs Detroit. The Jets offense is awful and, like I said last week, the Chiefs defense is legit. As long as KC doesn’t explode on offense like last week (I still think we should’ve won that under), I don’t see this game getting 42 points.
Pick: Under 41.5
MNF: Seahawks at Giants (O/U 47, NYG +1)
Giants have looked bad against good teams (Dallas, SF) and good against bad teams (Arizona). The Seahawks are neither good nor bad, but trend closer to being good. Even if Barkley ends up playing, I like the Seahawks as I’d be buying the bad news for Seattle. Without Barkley, I think the Giants won’t be able to score enough to hang with the Seahawks in a game that should be played in the high 20s.
Pick: SEA -1
LAUBACH’S LOCK
2-0. 2-0. 2-0. Undefeated. Going for a perfect 3-0 to start the year, I have the week 4 Laubach Lock.
After getting the breaks blown off them last weekend, I’m rocking with Washington +9 during their visit to Philadelphia. The Commies have been underdogs of 6 or more in 3 of the last 4 matchups, and they’re 2-0-1 in those games and have a straight-up win as an 11-point underdog last year.
The Commanders are 2-6 in their last 8 ATS, but due for a big bounce back. This also fits the BBC system, as the Commanders lost big vs Buffalo and the Eagles covered on MNF vs Tampa.
Laubach Lock: WAS +9
Let’s go dominate week 4 the same way the Europeans dominated the US on day one of the Ryder Cup.
Cheers
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Wow the commies! Interesting. Consider it tailed