Tails never fails. Two of the last three Super Bowl coin tosses have landed tails side up, and we’re riding with tails again this year. P.S., make this bet with your boys, not your bookie. No reason to lay -105 or -110 juice on a coin toss. It’s a stupid prop bet, but it can set the tone for the game if you guess right. I’m also really glad this bet is only offered for the Super Bowl. I can just imagine myself sweating out a coin toss in late September before the Panthers host the Vikings… not a pretty look.
Another novelty prop that has zero impact on the game but is a must-play on Super Bowl Sunday involves 10 gallons of electrolytes. With the lack of legal sports betting in Texas, this is a pretty obscure prop for a bookie to take action on, but we’ll call a shot with Purple at +700 (via DK). That’s just my personal favorite, and it was the color of choice for the Chiefs during our back-to-back Super Bowl victories.
Now to the real game props. When I try to come up with a couple of favorite prop bets for a game like this, I try to first envision the entire game script. The main reason I do this is to avoid getting caught with contradicting action. For example, I lean under 45.5 pretty heavily, so I’m not going to fire five different TD scorers or ladder JSN or Diggs receiving yards. I think we’ll see some stellar situational play calls, but I don’t see either offense being extremely efficient or explosive.
With that in mind, our first bet is “neither team to score 30+ points” at -155. I’m laying a little bit of juice here, but I can’t see either team putting up that many points without a defensive or special teams touchdown. The Patriots and Seahawks have both scored on defense or special teams so far in the playoffs, but I don’t think they’ll be able to in this game.
Similar to the coin toss, I have a couple of other props that I’ve taken to try to win early and often. “Kenneth Walker first rush attempt under 3.5 yards” at -139. This line has moved from -118 to -139 on my book, and I took it at both numbers. The blended average of my wagers comes out to -122, so that’s what you’ll see on my ActionNetwork.
Another prop bet that can be cashed in the first quarter is a first touchdown scorer. The most bet player for an anytime TD is JSN. He’s -125 anytime and +550 for first. I think everyone is chasing the bigger plus sign on JSN and completely overlooking Kenneth Walker III. Laying -200 on any anytime TD scorer is hard to justify, but I have a plan. Take Walker first TD at +375. If it hits, then you just got the anytime TD result at +375 instead of -200. If it misses? Take Walker anytime TD live at better odds than -200. My target line is somewhere around -150 before the end of the first quarter.
Quickly running through a couple of other bets:
“Game to be tied again after 0-0 – yes” -130
“2H + OT highest scoring half” -130
“1st drive result – punt” +101
Parlay: “Maye over 20 rushing yards (-358) + Henry over 30 receiving yards (-264)” -130
As for the game lines themselves, you know where I stand on the total. I’m not betting the under, but most of my props align with that thinking. For a side, I initially leaned toward the Seahawks… but so did everyone else. In my office of ~20 people, we took a straight-up poll on Friday, and 18 of the 20 picked Seattle. That’s a little too public for my liking if I’m a Seahawks fan. A key fact to remember is that the Super Bowl spread doesn’t matter; outright winners end up being 48-7-3 ATS (87.3%). Meaning if you like the favorite, don’t worry about laying the points, but if you like the underdog, just take them on the money line. That said, the two most common margins of victory in the Super Bowl are by 3 and 4 points, neither of which would have the Seahawks covering.
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