Systems check, weekly picks, and my Laubach Lock are all in the same post this week! We’ll start with a BBC update and then recap our week 4 picks.
Bounce Back Cover (BBC)
Not a great start for the BBC overall. You’d expect a system like this to hit at a higher clip, so a sub-.500 rate is not optimal.
With bye weeks now starting, we might start only having 3-6 games every week that fit the criteria. This week we have 5. Two matchups pushed last week, making those teams exempt from the system. Those teams would be the Broncos/Bears (Broncos won by exactly 3) and the Raiders/Chargers (Chargers won by exactly 7).
Noon – Texans at Falcons -1.5
Texans won outright as underdogs at home vs the Steelers.
Falcons didn’t cover vs the Jags in London.
Noon – Panthers +9.5 at Lions
Panthers didn’t cover vs the Vikings last week in the battle of the winless teams.
Lions covered in Lambeau on TNF.
Noon – Ravens at Steelers +4.5
Ravens covered last week vs the Watson-less Browns.
Steelers lost outright in Houston.
Noon – Titans at Colts +2.5
Titans covered vs the Bengals.
Colts weren’t able to cover as home underdogs vs the Rams.
3:05 – Eagles -4 at Rams
Eagles beat the Commanders in overtime, but didn’t cover the number.
The Rams beat the Colts in Indy, and covered the 1.5-pt spread.
All of these seem like decent spots, so hopefully we can get this system above 50% this week!
Week 5 Picks
While the BBC system hasn’t been clicking… our picks have been enfuego.
Sitting at 19-7-2 overall, and a perfect 3-0 on the Laubach Lock. Hoping to continue that success in week 5… here’s the slate!
TNF: Bears at Commanders (O/U 45, WAS -6)
Loser pick by me. I took the under just in case this game turned into a stinker… the game was honestly still a stinker and I lost the bet. Outside of the DJ Moore highlights, this game was lame from start to finish. Too bad there were a lot of points and the over hit.
Pick: Under 45
London Series: Jaguars at Bills (O/U 48.5, BUF -5.5)
Big statement win by Buffalo last weekend vs Miami. I told you they’d put their foot down and show that the AFC East still runs through Buffalo, and they did just that. Besides the first 2 drives, the defense really stepped up and held the Dolphins in check. That unit is also expecting to get Von Miller back this week in London, so you’d expect them to perform at an even higher clip. With Diggs and Allen clicking on all cylinders last week, the offense looked unstoppable as well.
Jacksonville stayed in London this week after their big win vs Atlanta at Wembley Stadium. They did move to Tottenham stadium for this week’s game, but I’m expecting a similar result from the Jags in this matchup.
London is the Jaguars’ second home, so I’ll take them as a home dog this week vs the Bills.
Pick: JAX +5.5
Saints at Patriots (O/U 39, NE -1)
Derek Carr is not that good of a QB, but the Saints absolutely need him healthy to move the ball. It’s hard to watch their games right now and I don’t expect it to get any easier this weekend.
As the low O/U total alludes to, Belichick is going to make it hard for the Saints to score on Sunday. This will be a gross game, but the Patriots are due for a massive bounceback after the most embarrassing loss of the Belicheck-era.
Pick: NE -1
Ravens at Steelers (O/U 38, PIT +4.5)
The Ravens looked so good last weekend in Cleveland. Surprisingly, that was Lamar’s first game with two passing and two rushing touchdowns in his career. I think the AFC North is now the Ravens to lose, especially with the Bengals’ struggles out of the gate.
Similar to the Patriots pick, I’m backing the team that got absolutely embarrassed the previous week, and that’s the Steelers here. After a bad loss in Houston, I’m getting Mike Tomlin as a home dog?? Sign me up. I hate Pickett, I hate Najee, but I love this defense.
This game will stay close and I can see the Ravens winning on a late FG, but I have to take Tomlin in this spot.
Pick: PIT +4.5
Chiefs at Vikings (O/U 44.5, MIN +3.5)
Kansas City cannot be satisfied with the close win in New York on SNF. Mahomes and the Chiefs have to be itching to make a statement after looking awful after the first quarter of their last game.
If Minnesota would’ve lost to Carolina, I would be backing them here because no way they start 0-5… but thankfully they got one in the win column.
Justin Jefferson will likely pop off, but I think our offense is due for a big game.
Pick: KC -3.5 and Over 44.5
SNF: Cowboy at 49ers (O/U 45, SF -3.5)
Everything is pointing to this being one of the best games of the year. Two of the consensus top 3 teams in the NFC facing off in primetime on SNF.
I disagree.
The 49ers are by far the superior team in all three phases. The only thing that scares me with this pick is the Cowboys pass rush. If Parsons or other guys on that side of the ball can fluster Purdy and their secondary turns him over, the 49ers could be in for trouble. The reason I’m still backing San Fran here is that I trust the scheme and game plan that Shanahan is going to put together. Whether it be quick screens or rushing the ball away from the Dallas playmakers, I think they’ll find ways to move the ball and win this game.
Pick: SF -3.5
MNF: Packers at Raiders (O/U 45, LV -2.5)
Such a trap line. No reason that Vegas should be 2.5-point favorites vs a team that’s looked pretty solid all year. Unless Adams can have a three-TD game, this one shouldn’t be close.
The Packers are by far the superior team and I love them here off a super long week and in a bounce-back spot.
Pick: GB +2.5
LAUBACH’S LOCK
Should I put a paywall on this part of the article? Being 19-7-2 overall is good, but 3-0 on the locks is more impressive. The first games are usually just based on the primetime games and what the best matchups of the weekend are, but the lock is me picking one game to put my reputation on.
This week? I’m going back to the well with my Indianapolis Colts. The first Laubach Lock was a Colts’ underdog ML win vs the Texans, and I’m rocking with them again this week.
Vrabel is a great coach as an underdog but as a favorite? Below .500. I’m slightly afraid that Derrick Henry could be all the way back, but I still like the Colts here as a home dog.
Laubach Lock: IND +2.5
Best of luck to everyone this weekend! I’ll be in College Station for the Alabama at A&M game on Saturday so I might have to hammer the Aggies… still TBD on that and any other CFB picks for this week. Will be back home for the entire NFL slate on Sunday so can’t wait to win all these bets!
One CFB bet I do have is OSU ML at +350… currently wrapping up this blog at the 3:34 mark in the 4th. Pokes up 8 but we have not looked good in this second half. Going to need a big stop late, whether it be a 4th down or on that 2-pt conversion to tie it, our D has to step up.
** UPDATE BEFORE I HIT PUBLISH** Massive interception by our defense. They showed up to play tonight, along with our kicker Alex Hale. Still have to finish the game, but that’s a massive boost.
Let’s go Pokes, let’s go Chiefs, let’s go COLTS!!
Cheers.
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